Amherst, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

905
FXUS61 KBUF 242340
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
740 PM EDT Thu Apr 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
It will be warm throughout the region this afternoon...especially
over the western counties where highs of 75 to 80 will be common.
While temperatures will remain well above normal through Friday...
conditions will significantly deteriorate later Friday and
particularly Friday night when a cold front will support widespread
showers and possible thunderstorms. It will be 15 to 20 degrees
cooler in the wake of the front on Saturday with slow improvement.
High pressure is guaranteed to supply us with beautiful but cool
weather for Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Tonight...the bulk of the region will remain in the warm sector.
This will result in temperatures that will be some 10 degrees above
normal...only bottoming out in the low to mid 50s over the western
counties and in the 40s east of Lake Ontario. A shower will not be
out of the question...although the flavor of the night will just be
partly cloudy.

On Friday...it will remain rather warm with temperatures returning
to the 70s. Unfortunately...all good things must come to an end. A
shortwave moving across the Lower Great Lakes in advance of a wavy
cold front will touch off some scattered showers and possibly some
thunderstorms for the midday and afternoon. While the bulk of the
region will be rain free...the risk for pcpn is probably too high to
roll the dice with outdoor activities.

It will be quite unsettled Friday night as a second...stronger
shortwave will support the gradual passage of a sfc wave and its
associated cold front. Expect fairly widespread showers and possible
thunderstorms with QPF in the vcnty of a quarter...to as much as a
half inch. The higher end of that range will be favored over the far
western counties.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Latest model guidance is quicker to close off low pressure in the
mid-levels on Saturday, which results in a slower exit of the
system. Uncertainty in when showers will end, with the RGEM
particularly slow in moving the low away. Showers will likely last
into Saturday morning, and will gradually end from west to east
Saturday night and into Sunday. By Sunday, high pressure building in
from the west should at least allow for clear and sunny skies in
Western NY but some clouds may linger east of Lake Ontario. It
will be notably cooler, but even so highs will range from the
lower 50s to lower 60s over the weekend, which it not too far
from normal. Sunday looks to be the better of the two days, with
more sunshine and lighter winds.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Surface high pressure will build across the region Sunday night
through Monday night, providing confidence in fair and dry weather.
With the surface high overhead, hedged a few degrees cooler than
model guidance for low temperatures Sunday night.

Low pressure tracking well to our north will push a cold front
across the region Tuesday night. LLJ of 50 knots will result in wind
shear favorable for organized convection. Late afternoon or evening
timing will provide for instability to develop before its passage,
so do see a risk for some strong to severe thunderstorms during this
timeframe.

Warm weather will continue early next week, especially Tuesday when
many locations in the lower elevations could top 80F. Cooler
Wednesday and Thursday following the cold frontal passage, but even
behind the front temperatures will drop to near normal levels.
Otherwise, high pressure building to the north will provide mainly
fair and dry weather for Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR flight conditions are found to start the 00Z TAFs and these
conditions will prevail for at least the next 12 to 18 hours. A
stalled frontal boundary currently over NYS may produce a sprinkle
overnight and through mid morning, but lacking deep moisture showers
will likely hold off until the late morning. At this time a
shortwave trough from the Ohio Valley will bring deeper moisture and
forcing to the TAF region.

Scattered to numerous showers and perhaps a thunderstorm will occur
the final 6 hours of this TAF cycle, with ceiling heights lowering
to MVFR at times of heavier activity.

Light winds tonight and tomorrow, though north of the frontal
boundary winds by late tonight will mainly be northeast for the SLV
including KART, while southern TAF sites through the TAF cycle
will have much more variability to the wind direction.

Outlook...
Friday night...MVFR to VFR cigs with numerous showers and possible
thunderstorms.
Saturday...MVFR/IFR early with a chance of showers, improving to VFR
later in the day.
Sunday and Monday...VFR.
Tuesday...VFR with afternoon showers possible.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will drift from the Lower Great Lakes to New England
today with relatively light winds. The light synoptic scale flow will
allow for local lake breezes this afternoon with onshore winds
developing.

Low pressure will then move into the central Great Lakes Friday
afternoon before moving over or just north of the lower Great Lakes
Friday night through early Saturday. East winds will increase Friday
on Lake Ontario ahead of this system with choppy conditions
developing. Conditions approaching Small Craft Advisory are more
likely late Friday night through Saturday night behind the cold
front, especially on Lake Ontario.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...Apffel
LONG TERM...Apffel
AVIATION...Thomas
MARINE...TMA